Thursday, June 9, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 00:11 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday June 8 closing data |
| 08:11 | Market Statistics For Wednesday June 8, 2005 |
| 09:29 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday June 9 |
| 09:53 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 19:38 | Swing Scanner Results Thursday June 9 closing data |
| 19:38 | Market Statistics For Thursday June 9, 2005 |
Wednesday June 8 closing data
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Statistics for Wednesday June 8, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 372 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 375 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.99 : 1 |
| Advancers | 41% |
| Decliners | 56% |
| Unchanged | 3% |
| Up Bars | 19% |
| Down Bars | 48% |
| Inside Bars | 19% |
| Outside Bars | 7% |
| Close > 20EMA | 41% |
| Close > 50SMA | 72% |
| Close > 200SMA | 59% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 41% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 17% |
Featured setups from Wednesday June 8, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
As the broader market continues to trade almost sideways, in particular the Dow 30 , direction remains unclear yet the bias has to be down for the time being based on the failure of the upper-most trading range to hold as has been noted over the past week in various indexes. Still, I’m continuing to be open to a market rally and continuation much higher, as unlikely as that seems at this point. Its one thing to be open to a rally but the market bias is to the downside therefore position protection and/or some limited shorting until a trend is very clear is the order of the day.
DIA Dow 30 ETF illustrates the compression here in range – from range contraction comes expansion – when it does break out and hold, in whatever direction, its going to be a decent sized move.
As I’m already short in QQQQ and some individual names, at this point am waiting for speed to pick up or for an up day to provide new shorting opportunities.
Don’t forget to follow up on opportunities from the last swing trade setup list – I’ll be looking through these in TrendVue Trader Talk shortly.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
EGHT – down bar in an up swing
WY – forest products, and land – down bar in an upswing, following a trendline breakout. In a stronger market this sort of setup would be jumped on by buyers, in this market, perhaps price will drift. Still, worth stalking.
CCO:C (CCJ on NYSE) – the worlds premier uranium producer
DEN:C – uranium, speculative – breakout of triangle is often a good place to lurk for a surprise long.
TEU:C (TEU on NYSE) – CP ships. I tend to think this one may have run its course, no pun intended, but I’m a little biased as I owned it much lower and missed the big run up through inattention! I’ll give it one shot here. Its getting some analyst play these days as well.
TK – shipping – also in the same sector as CP, a lovely little pause following a trendline breakout. One to stalk if it doesn’t work today – follow up on this.
K:C / KGC – a reminder to keep watching gold while the minor bounce in the USD off the recent 5 day decline plays out. Today or tomorrow we ought to see some movement in the sector for good or bad.
Test of Top – Continuation
CNQ:C / CNQ:NYSE – pause at a test of top. I’m not in this name but am holding still fairly large positions in energy as these tests of tops in many stocks play out, looking to capture a breakout to the next higher level…
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
ELN – what’s with this stock and chart. Yikes!
Good morning, today is Thursday June 9th, the 160th day of 2005.
Today its all about the maestro, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, while oil concerns no doubt will play second fiddle as always. His prepared remarks will be released at 10:00 am.
Crude oil is trading up 1.33% higher, and natural gas is also up almost 1 percent before markets open. OPEC officials are meeting before the European Union today, proposing to lift its production quota by a further 500,000 barrels a day, yet industry waters understand this move merely matches now the actual over-quota production at current rates.
``It’s not within OPEC’s power to bring prices down,’’ said Deborah White, a commodities economist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. ``The market is looking ahead at the third and fourth quarters. It’s afraid that the refining system is incapable’’ of producing enough heating oil, diesel and jet fuel, she said, adding that prices could rise another $10 in the third quarter.1
Barlays Capital2 released a report today suggesting oil could move to $60, primarily on the back of concerns of output from Russia, a country which hasn’t occupied front of mind much lately since the days when the Yukos saga was front page news day in, day out. Russia has ramped production an incredible 55% since 1998, yet there are signs that it may have peaked out in its production ability for the time being:
``It looks to us that Russian oil production is starting to go backwards,’’ Horsnell and Norrish said. ``Even using some rather mild and conservative assumptions, we are projecting a decline in Russian output in 2006, in the order of 0.2 million barrels a day.’’
Will 2005 be the summer of high oil and high natural gas? A warmer than average summer can contribute to the latter, and if so, implies unusually high natural gas prices right through the end of the year impacting the winter heating season. Markets are now back on hurricane watch too:
``We believe that it will become very difficult to sell aggressively into a market on near-permanent hurricane watch, looking at crude inventory draws most weeks, and seeing weaker data from Russian supply and stronger data from Chinese demand,’’ the analysts said in a report yesterday.
US Market Calendar
7:00 am: Bank of England interest rate policy announcement3
8:30 am: Initial Claims – Jun. 4th week
10:00 am: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan makes his annual report on the U.S. economy in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress
Canadian Market Calendar
8:30 am: Labour Productivity – Q1
8:30 am: Capacity Utilization – Q1
8:30 am: New Housing Price Index – Apr.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Crude Oil Rebounds on Concern About Output From U.S. Refineries
2 Commodity Strategists: Barclays Says Oil May Top $60
3 Bank of England Keeps Benchmark Rate at 4.75 Percent
Today's transcript.
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Thursday June 9 closing data
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Statistics for Thursday June 9, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 311 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 436 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.71 : 1 |
| Advancers | 68% |
| Decliners | 30% |
| Unchanged | 3% |
| Up Bars | 28% |
| Down Bars | 44% |
| Inside Bars | 9% |
| Outside Bars | 15% |
| Close > 20EMA | 68% |
| Close > 50SMA | 73% |
| Close > 200SMA | 60% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 41% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 17% |