Monday, July 11, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:21 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:52 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday July 11 |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 17:47 | Swing Scanner Results Monday July 11 closing data |
| 17:49 | Market Statistics For Monday July 11, 2005 |
Good morning, today is Monday July 11th, the 192nd day of 2005.
Stock index futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the open in part on expectations that oil will trade lower (off 1.8% at this time) thanks to what seems at this time to be largely a miss by hurricane Dennis of major oil producing and refining facilities. Relief may be short lived, as tropical depression five is on its way and then there’ll be six, seven, eight…
With little economic news on deck until Wednesday we’ve got preannouncements, warnings, company news and oil to guide those of us still focussed on the markets instead of holidays.
Featured setups from “Friday July 8, 2005 closing data symbol scan”
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- rather as expected there’s not a lot of new opportunity lurking on the long side – when so many trade setups trigger and perform as well as last weeks, we know we have to manage what we have and be ready to take some profits
DIA – likely to stall near 105 and if not then another tall bar pu and near 106.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
NEM – gold – a reminder to watch this market carefully. While the USD is currently trading below the upper most trading range on an intraday basis, any attempt by the greenback to push back above and hold > 90 on the index is likely to create significant weakness. I’d rather see ABX (currently in a bear flag) trade lower a day or so and then stalk a long.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
XLE – oil sector ETF – aggressive traders only. I prefer to just take profits from oil sector rather than trade it short, at least on a swing trade basis. I’ve no problem selling the sector short for intraday trades.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
TSM
Test of Bottom – Continuation
ADSK – may have found a bottom here near the 50 day EMA but if not long it stalk any weak (declining volume) bounce here for up to 2 more days (stealth bear flag setup)
Today's transcript.
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Monday July 11 closing data
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Statistics for Monday July 11, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 659 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 83 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 7.93 : 1 |
| Advancers | 80% |
| Decliners | 19% |
| Unchanged | 1% |
| Up Bars | 78% |
| Down Bars | 10% |
| Inside Bars | 7% |
| Outside Bars | 3% |
| Close > 20EMA | 80% |
| Close > 50SMA | 78% |
| Close > 200SMA | 64% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 45% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 16% |