Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 05:39 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday July 12 |
| 10:27 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 19:53 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday July 12 closing data |
| 19:55 | Market Statistics For Tuesday July 12, 2005 |
Featured setups from Monday July 11, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- USD is off significantly; as discussed over the past few days, EUR and GBP are now rising above what appears to us as selling exhaustion and CAD has continued to show strength again this week. Gold plays largely have already triggered but there may be more mileage in the group.
- Natural Gas is up roughly 2% and crude is up marginally but over 59 once again. Reason? Tropical Storm Emily is on its way plus Dennis did more damage than first expected and resulted in more production shut in (almost 1% of annual Gulf of Mexico oil production so far, some 4M b/d at this point). Excercise caution unless/until the range high of last week in most of the larger capitalization energy stocks is broken and becomes support.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
RIG – trendline breakout, pull back, and now… do or die time.
Test of Top – Continuation
ENERGY
CNQ:C / CNE:NYSE
HSE:C (TSX) integrated play
ENERGY SERVICES
HAL currently on bar 4 of the retracement into the former high – needs to push up and stay above the range highs marked here soon.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
ADSK – software – bouncing to overhead resistance.
DG – budget retail – single up bar in down swing
FDO – retail, similar to DG chart
Good morning, its Tuesday July 12th, the 193rd day of 2005.
The Bank of Canada held its key overnight lending rate firm at 2 3/4 percent but again telegraphed clearly that it expects to continue to take monetary stimulus away. One suspects the strength of the Canadian dollar (surging higher against the USD lately) is holding them back today more than anything:
The Bank’s outlook for output and inflation in Canada is little changed from the April Monetary Policy Report. The economy is thus projected to continue to operate near its production capacity this year and next, and inflation is expected to return to 2 per cent by the end of 2006. To support aggregate demand and facilitate the adjustment of the Canadian economy to global developments, the Bank has held the target for the overnight rate unchanged since October 2004. However, in line with the Bank’s outlook, some reduction in the amount of monetary stimulus will be required in the near term to keep aggregate demand and supply in balance and inflation on target. The risks to the outlook through 2006 appear balanced, but over the medium term risks related to global imbalances are increasing.
In other news, yesterday Tropical Depression No. 5 was given a nicer title, now Tropical Storm Emilly. This marks the earliest period in recorded history that 5 named tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic Basin. Here we go again:
- National Hurricane Center US Navy Tracking site
- Canadian Hurricane Track
- Infrared sat pictures of the region (emily is just coming into view lower right hand corner
- Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico Region – useful government site for regional energy industry related news particularly storm damage and other issues
Elsewhere affecting energy:
- Giant BP / Exxon production platform, not yet in service, listing 20–30 degrees as a result of unspecified damage from Hurricane Dennis (news)
- Civil unrest likely in Nigeria over energy profit sharing in country: Delegates from Nigeria’s oil-rich states boycott talks
- Heat wave in central Canada putting supply under extreme pressure: Toronto Hydro Urging Customers To Reduce Electricity Use During Heatwave
- OPEC still sitting on sidelines: OPEC says any output hike to be based on market need
On top of the BP rig issue, Crude and Natural Gas prices have been trading markedly higher since yesterday’s report from MMS indicated that so far three quarters of one percent of the Gulf of Mexico’s total annual production had been shut in by Hurricane Dennis. Today’s report at 1:00pm CDT will give traders a sneak peak as to the impact on national oil inventory reports for this week and next.
Clearly energy traders – facing a market exhibiting growing demand, apparently unflagging demand actually, and short spare capacity – are going to be reluctant to sell the market aggressively with so many unknowns on horizon.
Meanwhile there is more to talk about than energy – the US Dollar has been selling off sharply in overnight trade and this has continued following the opening of North American markets.
US Dollar Index
Chief beneficiaries over the past two days have been the GBP Pound and EUR Euro; the Canadian dollar CAD has also continued to show significant strength, extending a run which has been in play for several weeks now. It seems that the CAD – a stable economy, low debt, and a lot of oil, is a new “safe haven” currency and indeed the press are picking up on this (Canadian Economy, Buoyed by Oil, Profits, May Surge)
US Market Calendar
- 7:45 am: ICSC-UBS Store Sales1
- 8:55 am: Redbook – Jul. 9th week
- 2:00 pm: Update on Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production impact
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: New Housing Price Index – May
- 9:00 am: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Policy Announcement2
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 US chain store sales rise in the latest week
2 Bank of Canada rate decision
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Tuesday July 12 closing data
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Statistics for Tuesday July 12, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 661 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 82 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 8.06 : 1 |
| Advancers | 56% |
| Decliners | 42% |
| Unchanged | 1% |
| Up Bars | 53% |
| Down Bars | 22% |
| Inside Bars | 13% |
| Outside Bars | 6% |
| Close > 20EMA | 56% |
| Close > 50SMA | 79% |
| Close > 200SMA | 64% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 46% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 13% |