Wednesday, July 13, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:17 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Wednesday July 13 |
| 12:20 | Crude Realities Supply and Demand Weekly Update |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 20:24 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday July 13 closing data |
| 20:30 | Market Statistics For Wednesday July 13, 2005 |
Featured setups from Tuesday July 12, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
An abbreviated list today because… well… everything is moving up from setups which existed over the past few days and there’s little in the way of setups except for laggards. Usually when this happens, a market reversal is not far behind (if even just for a day or so).
- According to market statistics, most of the market is now in an upswing. We are nearing the point where a reversal is likely, unless a surprising catalyst can be found to justify moving virtually the entire market higher. Caution with longs, consider trailing tighter profit stops…
- At the same time, when most of the market has been moving higher in unison, there will not be very many clear short setups and such is true today
- Keep an eye on yesterday’s DG or FDO shorts – if all boats lift today we can expect those swing trades to be cut prematurely short (but will be stalked again…)
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Top – Continuation
RMK
NXTL
EMC
Rather as expected traders appear to have expected the drawdowns reported in this mornings EIA Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data and we await the result of today’s volatility to see if 60.50 holds as new support or continues to act as resistance.
Supply
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 10.0 million barrels per day last week, down 265,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged over 10.3 million barrels per day, a decrease of 124,000 barrels per day from the comparable four weeks last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 954,000 barrels per day, while distillate fuel imports averaged 262,000 barrels per day.
Demand
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 20.7 million barrels per day, or 1.5 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged over 9.4 million barrels per day, or 2.3 percent above the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 4.1 percent above the same period last year. Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 3.8 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Updating our demand growth and comparison tracking against EIA forecasts:
Demand growth year over year
Actual demand vs 2005 EIA projections – interestingly in yesterday’s EIA projection update, they lowered growth expectations agin for 2005:
U.S. petroleum demand growth during the 2-year period is projected to average about 1.3 percent per year, down from the much stronger 3.5-percent increase seen in 2004. Motor gasoline demand growth is projected to average 130,000 barrels per day during the 2-year period, or 1.5 percent, per year, below the 1.9-percent growth in 2004 [actual so far 1.7%]. Jet fuel demand is expected to rise by an average 2.9 percent per year, slightly below 2004’s 3.3-percent growth [actual so far 3.91%]. Distillate demand is projected to climb steadily by an average of 1.9 percent per year, well below the 3.3-percent growth recorded for 2004 [actual so far 2.98%].
One would be tempted to wonder if they use spreadsheets at the EIA, although granted we are only 1/4 the way through the forecast period. We should also note that this revision is for slightly stronger growth than implied in the June short term outlook - traders may pick up on this as a sign the upward bias in demand is to remain (as the actual numbers keep confirming).
Also contained within the Short Term Outlook was a revision in price expectations up to an average of 6 increase from its prior estimate. (Oil leaps as US lifts price forecast)
Natural Gas
Ahead of tomorrows status update, released yesterday, the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook noted:
The natural gas market is likely to stay tight over the next few months when summer cooling demand is at its height. Prices are then projected to rise even further as the winter heating season boosts natural gas demand.
And:
Domestic natural gas production in 2005 and 2006 is expected to remain near the 2004 level, despite a 12-percent annual average increase expected in natural gas-directed well completions.
Other Factors
Refineries operated at 96.2 percent of their operable capacity last week, down slighly from last week’s number, no doubt in part due to Cindy and Dennis storms.
There’s some increasing doubt that Tropical Storm Emily will form a major hurricane and/or threaten Gulf of Mexico oil and gas assets, but its early days in the track of this storm and as such uncertainty is likely to provide some support to the commodities.
And on the political front:
- Putin’s Aide Warns of Finno-Ugric Conspiracy to Seize Russia’s Oil Assets
- Nigeria: Row Over Oil Money Delivers Killer Blow to Constitutional Reform Conference
- CNOOC to fine-tune Unocal bid
Today's transcript.
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Wednesday July 13 closing data
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Statistics for Wednesday July 13, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 570 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 173 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 3.29 : 1 |
| Advancers | 47% |
| Decliners | 51% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 38% |
| Down Bars | 30% |
| Inside Bars | 19% |
| Outside Bars | 7% |
| Close > 20EMA | 47% |
| Close > 50SMA | 77% |
| Close > 200SMA | 65% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 46% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 13% |