Thursday, July 14, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:08 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday July 14 |
| 09:29 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Featured setups from Wednesday July 13, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- economic and corporate news has sparked a pre-market push higher in futures; the long game may still be on here, as price will break through key resistance at the open. Just be cautious of stalls and reversals particularly in the early going. Better to take the trade and exit than wait around for proof, provided one is faced with a decent setup for entry.
- Most short setups I see are in the oil sector today but with Hurricane Emily on the way and considerable chance that it may emerge in the Gulf of Mexico as a threat to energy infrastructure, I’m not keen to stalk the sector short for swing trades.
- If markets pop and drop use ETF’s for short exposure on a failure of price to hold the highs of the past several days. We’ll be talking about it in Trader Talk today if that should happen and will post a note on the website as well.
- Semi biz likely to help drive prices higher – just be aware that gap ups can signal exhuberance that is indicative of a top, as well as continuation. Any stall and pull back here needs to be guarded against with appropriate stops. SMH:
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
AMAT – semiconductor sector
ABX – gold
PAAS – silver – follow up any retracement for another 2 days as illustrated
Test of Top – Continuation
FCX – gold
TIF – high end retail
MCK – healthcare sector
AL:C – aluminum; or similar setup but above a big gap on AA
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
SEBL – software; if not triggered today should be followed up for a day or two
Special Situations
CNR:C – railways, test of bottom can be stalked in either direction favoring short side based on chart
Good morning, today is Thursday July 14, the 195th day of 2005.
Consumer Price Index report this morning came in at a 0% change and 0.1% monthly change less food and energy. Both numbers were near consensus. The real story this morning is the consumer, which continues to spend like there’s no tomorrow, driving month to month sales up 1.7% (thanks in large part to auto sales incentives) and a solid 0.7% growth ex autos. Interestingly, gasoline sales were up 1.9% in June following a 0.5 decline in May.
This report has pushed stock index futures up sharply; the USD is surprisingly restrained. Nasdaq futures following good news from Apple yesterday were not moved sharply but are now up more than one half percent on the back of the retail sales number.
Hmnn, sometimes when the futures so bright you have to wear shades, its the end of the line. Lets participate, take the gains in stride, but use common sense and caution as well.
In other news, Emily has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane overnight and is strengthening. Computer models have shifted its track over a huge distance over the past 24 hours so there is little confidence as to ultimate US landfall to be had at this stage of the game.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Consumer Price Index – Jun.
- 8:30 am: Retail Sales – Jun.
- 8:30 am: Initial Claims – Jul. 9th week
- 10:30 am: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
- 2:00 pm: Natural Gas Weekly Update
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Existing Home Sales – Jun.
- 8:30 am: Manufacturing Shipments & Orders – May
- 10:30 am: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Update
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Today's transcript.
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