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Home > Archive > 2005 > 7 > 19 :: Archive

Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Issue Contents:

05:42 The Day Ahead
Economic releases and news
06:06 Swing Trade Setups
Featured charts for Tuesday July 19
16:15 TrendVue Trader Talk
Today's transcript.
16:15 TrendVue Trader Talk
Today's transcript.
18:10 Swing Scanner Results
Tuesday July 19 closing data
18:11 Market Statistics
For Tuesday July 19, 2005

The Day Ahead

Good morning, its Tuesday July 19th, the 200th day of 2005 – only 165 more to go until 2006…

It’ll be relatively quiet with little economic news on deck today but we do have corporate earnings (IBM), the weekly retail reports, and at 8:30 another look at the housing sector.

Yesterday, comments in a letter from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee were released:

[Greenspan] said the rise in oil prices since the end of 2003 probably shaved economic growth by around three-fourths of a percentage point this year after having reduced growth by about one-half point last year. The economy grew by 4.4 percent last year, the strongest performance since 1999. Private economists believe this year could clock in around 3.5 percent, a slower but still healthy pace. Referring to the drag from the higher oil prices, Greenspan said, “Aside from these `headwinds,’ the U.S. economy seems to be coping pretty well with the run-up in crude oil prices.” (Forbes)

How does oil affect the economy? Historical data shows rising prices eventually have an impact, and periods with dramatically rising prices have in the past pushed the economy easily into recession, almost to the brink of depression.


Year on Year Oil Demand, GDP Change vs Cost of Crude (in nominal as well as GDP and CPI adjusted dollars. Data source: Energy Information Agency.

The question on everyone’s minds is whether today’s economy is still in the Goldilocks zone or not – not too hot or cold. One economic indicator we can use for a heads up is crude and refined product demand, and so far this year, demand continues to drive higher. Perhaps Mr. Greenspan will speak more on the subject on Wednesday or Thursday as he testifies at a semi-annual hearing on monetary policy held by the House Financial Services Committee.

US Market Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Housing Starts – Jun.
  • 8:30 am: Building Permits – Jun.
  • 8:55 am: Redbook – Jul. 16th week
  • 10:00 am: State Street Investor Confidence Index

Canadian Market Calendar

  • No releases scheduled.

Earnings and the Federal Reserve

For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.

For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.

^ 05.07.19 05:42 #

 

Swing Trade Setups

Featured setups from Monday July 18, 2005 closing data symbol scan

Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations

Notes for the Day

  • If IBM can’t spark a rally in tech today be wary of “bearish harami” or spikes in stocks that have run up significantly such as RFMD; aggressive traders could attempt a short in such names as well, take profits early and keep expectations low.
  • OSX has sold off significantly as well as the OIX index; Drillers, producers and refiners all need to be watched carefully for signs of an intermediate term bounce, just remember new longs here are buying either a) near the lows of a developing range (and potential for chop which lasts days or weeks) or, b) buying a minor bounce even a new downtrend is forming.

Long Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.

Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend


HAL – energy services – pulls back to where support should show up but even if trade triggers and closes strongly, unless/until proice can regain the area above the triangle breakdown, at best HAL is in a large chop zone, at worst a reversal of the longer term trend is at hand.


VLO – refiner


PCA:C / PCZ – integrated


CNQ:C / CNQ – oil sands – now on bar 3 of bull flag. High adx tells us that if triggered and filled we really need to see a big move up to keep us in the trade. Stocks generally are nearing the end of run when ADX > 40.

Test of Top – Continuation


DELL


KLAC pulls back to former breakout area.

Short Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.

Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend


UNH – building a bear flag, narrow range bar bouncing to overhead resistance.

Test of Top – Reversal


QQQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF can be legitimately traded in either direction at off this test of top

Special Situations


RIM:C / RIMM – tech hardware – possible bear flag trigger failure is the setup.

^ 05.07.19 06:06 #

 

TrendVue Trader Talk

Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.

^ 05.07.19 16:15 #

TrendVue Trader Talk

Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.

^ 05.07.19 16:15 #

Swing Scanner Results

TrendVue Symbol Scanner Output

The TrendVue stock scanner looks for patterns and events occuring across a symbol universe of more than six hundred stocks. Information on the scan criteria and meaning of the current scan output can be found in this help document.

Note: The latest output from the symbol scanner, in a text format suitable for cutting and pasting into various charting applications, is always available at http://www.trendvue.com/latestscan.

Event Scan Results

Jump To Symbols with events, ordered by descending volume
Symbols with most events, ordered by number of events
LegendDown Bar in Up Swing | Up Bar in Down Swing
Hover mouse over symbol for symbol name and list of available recent events, bold symbols indicate events have occured.

Symbols With Events Ordered by Volume Descending ^

∧ ∨
Swing
Close
    Net		%
Net
Volume		#
Trades
   ADX		%
   ATR
MSFT ∧  26.16 0.61 2.39 113506288 120179 22.73 1.44
recent gap up
INTC ∧  28.71 0.48 1.70 91464328 125144 21.25 1.64
recent gap up
QQQQ ∧  39.18 0.45 1.15 78416728 56639 22.85 1.10
recent gap up
C ∨  44.40 -0.60 -1.33 38191700 22613 23.61 1.48
recent gap down
ORCL ∧  13.94 0.04 0.29 36378560 34608 41.91 2.51
outside bar
AVP ∨  31.30 -5.30 -14.48 34293200 14755 14.36 3.04
recent gap down
MOT ∧  19.85 0.39 2.00 28353500 17440 44.38 2.12
recent gap up
PFE ∨  27.38 0.13 0.48 27182400 14046 25.15 1.46
up bar in downswing | recent gap down | recent gap up
AAPL ∧  43.19 1.70 4.10 24000652 73284 21.69 2.77
recent gap up | outside bar
SIRI ∨  6.85 0.01 0.15 23480680 21245 23.42 4.01
recent gap up
IP ∧  32.22 1.56 5.09 22799600 17059 21.43 2.95
recent gap up
SMH ∧  37.50 0.60 1.63 20838100 109532 28.3 1.56
recent gap up
XOM ∨  58.78 0.63 1.08 19056400 12922 18.03 2.05
up bar in downswing
BAC ∨  44.82 -0.26 -0.58 18397300 15394 23.52 1.46
recent gap down | outside bar
JDSU ∧  1.70 -0.01 -0.58 15842216 7913 29.89 3.95
recent gap up
NT ∧  2.79 0.04 1.45 14200000 3690 24.71 3.07
outside bar
IBM ∧  83.70 1.89 2.31 14149700 16463 28.01 1.87
recent gap up
CAT ∧  53.40 2.58 5.08 13782200 17321 31.42 1.84
recent gap up
TWX ∧  16.50 -0.03 -0.18 13625700 8908 28.93 1.42
down bar in upswing | nr7 | recent gap up
GLW ∧  18.18 0.68 3.89 13423000 10374 31.58 2.51
recent gap up
EBAY ∨  35.37 0.47 1.35 13333723 42922 30.92 2.10
inside day | hangman
CHKP ∧  23.04 1.42 6.57 12807460 35390 30.84 3.16
recent gap up
GOOG ∧  309.90 10.36 3.46 12734917 59083 13.47 2.14
recent gap up
JPM ∨  35.21 -0.30 -0.84 12573900 8784 12.99 1.33
outside bar
JNJ ∧  65.02 0.42 0.65 11069400 7184 67.75 1.03
inside day
EMC ∧  14.52 -0.05 -0.34 10952700 6729 15.65 2.25
outside bar
KRB ∨  25.67 -0.18 -0.70 10784900 5301 44.64 2.90
recent gap down
TXN ∧  31.18 0.19 0.61 10713000 10672 29.78 2.01
nr7
SSCC ∧  11.40 0.87 8.26 10448206 22140 23.38 3.57
recent gap up
QCOM ∧  35.80 0.68 1.94 9962590 29696 27.05 2.10
outside bar
FON ∨  25.26 0.24 0.96 9856800 5359 45.24 1.86
inside day
WB ∨  49.73 -1.27 -2.49 8778500 7234 14.33 1.98
recent gap down
MER ∧  57.98 1.31 2.31 8239300 8497 21.92 1.54
doji | recent gap down | recent gap up
JNPR ∧  26.53 0.41 1.57 8036083 20089 15.36 2.27
recent gap up
BRCM ∧  39.39 1.00 2.60 8000997 26437 20.16 2.30
recent gap up
SGP ∧  19.98 -0.07 -0.35 7854700 3252 22.19 1.97
recent gap up
CECO ∨  37.94 -3.17 -7.71 7050289 23796 31.37 3.86
recent gap up
EYET ∨  11.39 -0.34 -2.90 6983533 24580 12.49 4.92
recent gap up
RD ∨  62.15 -1.56 -2.45 6627900 5727 40.49 1.81
recent gap down
ERTS ∧  61.57 3.78 6.54 6539428 20627 28.11 3.02
recent gap down
MLNM ∧  9.88 -0.12 -1.20 6428011 13247 26.8 4.16
down bar in upswing | recent gap up
LOW ∧  65.98 1.42 2.20 6395000 7907 24.87 2.06
recent gap up
VZ ∨  34.50 0.14 0.41 5906800 5717 19.55 1.03
inside day | recent gap up
AMZN ∧  38.17 0.98 2.64 5855747 17503 29.8 2.19
recent gap up | outside bar
QLTI ∨  9.65 -0.70 -6.76 5760165 13420 12.92 4.40
recent gap down
ADBE ∧  29.31 0.47 1.63 5713101 19433 56.85 2.76
doji | outside bar
VRSN ∨  28.79 0.78 2.78 5682746 12849 23.9 3.53
up bar in downswing
CNXT ∧  1.85 -0.04 -2.12 5535570 3764 25.16 4.79
outside bar
SEPR ∧  58.61 -1.01 -1.69 5437352 18391 19.79 2.83
outside bar
AIG ∨  60.70 0.60 1.00 5393000 5686 38.76 1.75
inside day

Symbols With Most Events Ordered by Events Descending ^

∧ ∨
Swing
Close
    Net		%
Net
Volume		#
Trades
   ADX		%
   ATR
ETN ∧  65.71 -0.04 -0.06 1273800 3286 14.91 1.89
inside day | bear harami | doji | recent gap up
NTES ∨  55.23 0.41 0.75 559048 2543 40.23 2.83
inside day | nr7 | doji
PHG ∨  27.23 0.60 2.25 730600 1209 13.28 1.82
up bar in downswing | recent gap down | recent gap up
K ∨  44.47 0.10 0.23 747800 1720 10.55 1.14
nr7 | recent gap down | recent gap up
IDNX ∨  4.85 0.02 0.41 779028 1832 29.14 5.08
nr7 | doji | recent gap down
DTV ∨  15.70 -0.01 -0.06 822100 1215 20.24 1.62
inside day | doji | recent gap up
GFI ∨  10.89 -0.09 -0.82 857600 1142 16.72 3.06
hammer | nr7 | recent gap down
MCK ∧  45.55 -0.20 -0.44 879400 1865 37.46 1.61
inside day | bear harami | nr7
STK ∧  36.53 -0.01 -0.03 1311700 1162 73.74 0.37
inside day | nr7 | recent gap up
ELX ∨  19.73 0.18 0.92 1491300 2714 24.37 2.25
inside day | nr7 | recent gap down
CEPH ∧  42.10 0.21 0.50 1704448 3802 33.07 2.08
inside day | nr7 | recent gap up
MERQ ∨  38.35 0.27 0.71 1844494 6534 66.69 2.27
bull harami | hammer | recent gap up
LMT ∨  61.58 0.11 0.18 1864800 3317 27.73 1.25
up bar in downswing | nr7 | doji
SBL ∧  11.48 0.08 0.70 2260700 3106 31.42 4.45
inside day | recent gap down | recent gap up
DNA ∧  88.25 0.19 0.22 2896000 7207 30.62 2.20
inside day | nr7 | doji
CAH ∨  58.00 0.21 0.36 3001800 2673 18.05 1.32
hammer | recent gap down | outside bar
GDT ∨  68.47 1.16 1.72 3855600 3653 39.93 2.40
up bar in downswing | hangman | recent gap down
LUV ∧  14.43 -0.15 -1.03 3923300 3608 35.63 2.48
inside day | recent gap down | recent gap up
NVDA ∨  26.58 0.36 1.37 4319252 12643 11.92 3.02
inside day | bull harami | nr7
UCL ∨  64.99 0.17 0.26 5200900 3144 46.36 1.56
hammer | recent gap down | outside bar
MER ∧  57.98 1.31 2.31 8239300 8497 21.92 1.54
doji | recent gap down | recent gap up
TWX ∧  16.50 -0.03 -0.18 13625700 8908 28.93 1.42
down bar in upswing | nr7 | recent gap up
PFE ∨  27.38 0.13 0.48 27182400 14046 25.15 1.46
up bar in downswing | recent gap down | recent gap up
POSS ∨  10.37 0.21 2.07 58815 321 16.41 3.75
pierceline | recent gap down
PWER ∨  5.95 0.15 2.59 301703 1110 28.72 4.37
inside day | bull harami
AGI ∨  14.37 0.02 0.14 324500 800 25.7 3.03
inside day | nr7
SWIR ∨  7.35 0.05 0.68 397080 1132 12.67 3.70
inside day | nr7
GPM ∧  22.34 0.23 1.04 428200 90 22.61 1.91
down bar in upswing | recent gap up
GTI ∨  4.76 0.01 0.21 462900 752 21.54 4.05
inside day | nr7
FL ∨  26.58 0.16 0.61 475700 1409 16.68 2.21
inside day | doji
RAI ∧  82.10 0.20 0.24 485900 1895 24.34 1.60
nr7 | recent gap up
SVU ∧  33.55 -0.02 -0.06 493600 1300 10.73 1.32
doji | outside bar
COVD ∨  1.22 -0.01 -1.21 509825 210 19.4078 3.54
up bar in downswing | recent gap down
PVX ∧  11.07 0.00 0.00 527700 754 46.37 1.92
inside day | nr7
XYBR ∨  0.10 0.00 0.00 546426 106 28.3749 36.05
inside day | nr7
PETM ∧  31.73 -0.03 -0.09 610781 2908 13.57 2.02
doji | outside bar
WPI ∨  29.69 0.17 0.58 643600 1649 32.68 1.78
bull harami | outside bar
TKLC ∨  16.57 0.12 0.73 704057 2220 40.79 3.01
inside day | nr7
ISSI ∧  8.97 0.08 0.90 708198 2455 55.18 3.24
inside day | nr7
GGP ∨  43.60 0.13 0.30 758900 1251 45.79 2.00
inside day | nr7
WTSLA ∨  5.75 0.09 1.59 800164 1551 33.62 7.35
hammer | outside bar
STM ∧  18.02 0.43 2.44 809400 1018 19.8 2.43
recent gap down | recent gap up
TSO ∨  47.83 1.30 2.79 833800 2604 18.61 2.96
up bar in downswing | recent gap down
DRI ∧  33.99 0.12 0.35 892600 2028 18.91 1.71
doji | outside bar
SSTI ∨  4.53 0.18 4.14 904440 2261 32.4 4.65
inside day | nr7
FDO ∧  26.01 0.11 0.42 970700 2073 19.1 2.27
hangman | nr7
ATVI ∨  18.08 0.06 0.33 1063953 3975 35.0 2.37
up bar in downswing | nr7
HET ∨  76.55 0.24 0.31 1073600 2775 24.6 1.49
nr7 | doji
CSX ∧  44.88 0.16 0.36 1121100 1862 18.45 1.43
hangman | recent gap up
INCY ∧  8.87 0.03 0.34 1129727 1582 32.61 4.30
doji | outside bar


^ 05.07.19 18:10 #

 

Market Statistics

Statistics for Tuesday July 19, 2005

Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.

Symbols in Up Swings435
Symbols in Down Swings306
Up/Down Swing Ratio1.42 : 1
Advancers71%
Decliners26%
Unchanged 2%
Up Bars51%
Down Bars22%
Inside Bars10%
Outside Bars10%
Close > 20EMA71%
Close > 50SMA80%
Close > 200SMA67%
20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up)47%
20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down)14%

^ 05.07.19 18:11 #