Monday, August 1, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:27 | Swing Scanner Results Friday July 29 closing data |
| 08:34 | Market Statistics For Friday July 29, 2005 |
| 08:48 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:25 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday August 1 |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Friday July 29 closing data
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Statistics for Friday July 29, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 473 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 266 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.77 : 1 |
| Up Bars | 33% |
| Down Bars | 33% |
| Inside Bars | 19% |
| Outside Bars | 8% |
| Close > 20EMA | 26% |
| Close > 50SMA | 73% |
| Close > 200SMA | 66% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 50% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 13% |
Good morning, its August 1st, the 213th day of 2005. Markets are closed in Canada as its a civic holiday because, well, August needs a holiday, doesn’t it?
For the rest of us attuned to the US market, we have a number of data points to look forward to today, with the 10am ISM manufacturing data release being the most notable economic news for markets to digest today.
Elsewhere, the death of Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd has given some lift to crude oil futures, however its not likely this event will have a big impact on price in the near term as the kings half-brother has been the defacto ruler of the kingdom for almost 10 years and will now officially take over as head of state. Still, Saudi Arabia will be under the microscope as traders look for any signs of increasing instability there as a result of the kings death—oil may have gained the additional support it needs to remain above $60 for a while yet.
The US Dollar continued its losing streak against a basket of currencies, breaking down through the triangle (consolidation zone); Gold continues to trade inversely to the dollar but is up only marginally compared to the relatively big move in the greenback. Watch carefully for the potential for reversals in either or both.
Futures traders will be keen to determine if Friday’s sell off was a one-day affair or the mark of a turn. Dow futures have proven to have problems breaking above and holding over the 10685 level; I’ll be holding Friday’s short with a break even stop very close to the high of that day on the chance that we’ve seen a top put in place. A failed test of top does not a trend change make – we don’t know that a trend has changed until long after the fact when in fact a new trend in the opposite direction emerges. If price is able to quickly move up > 10700 and hold there for more than minutes, the long game is probably on once more; if price makes a substantial new low then the last point of refuge for the current market up trend will be a pass/fail test near 10575 at the bottom end of the consolidation range that has build up over the past few weeks.
US Market Calendar
- 10:00 am: ISM Index – Jul.
- 10:00 am: Construction Spending – Jun.
- 4:00 pm: Auto Sales – July
Canadian Market Calendar
- Civic holiday: No scheduled releases
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Friday July 29, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- Some semi names appear to have oomph left in them; perhaps tech can take this market back up again. Meanwhile others, such as LSI, have disappointed in results lately. Watching a name like LSI can prove instructive – if it continues to rise despite its results, the long game in that sector is on…
SPY – S&P 500 ETF
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
MRK – perhaps this sector has been beaten down enough for a while
PFE
Test of Top – Continuation
APA – this week we’ll be watching energy to see if these names can break out of their ranges to the upside
MRO – energy
CTL – telco
BEAS – software
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
LSI – reported, potential Island Reversal here.
VRSN – internet – “bear flag” is getting aged here…
MGAM – gaming
CA – software
Test of Bottom – Continuation
AIRT – tech
Today's transcript.
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