Tuesday, August 2, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:55 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:28 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday August 2 |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 18:26 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday August 2 closing data |
| 18:27 | Market Statistics For Tuesday August 2, 2005 |
Good morning – its Tuesday August 2nd, the 214th day of 2005.
US Consumers opened their wallets willingly last week1, apparently taking up supplies of items to help beat-the-heat felt in many parts of the country, driving same-store sales up 0.9% from the prior week, and registering a 4.9% year over year gain for the same week.
Personal income is up 0.5% year over year for last month; spending is up 0.8% for the same period2.
The Semiconductor Industry Association3 says that world chip sales dropped again in June but predicts a rebound in the second half of 2005 and a healthy full year increase of six percent.
The US dollar is again weaker today apparently on news or rumour of major players reallocating capital in part as a response to a too-big bounce in the value of the greenback and economic improvement elsewhere, notably in Japan.
And in case you missed the hoopla over the US Energy bill passed last week, the statistical forecasting arm of the US Energy Information Agency has done us all a favour and looked at the near and long term impacts of the bill. Will H.R. 6, the Energy Bill, make a real difference at the pumps?
No.
You can get the full analysis here, but the short story? Negligible change in:
- domestic production
- import picture; reliance on imports grows
- consumption… keeps on chugging ever higher
… where negligible change means the current planned for trends… continue; and,
- doubling of natural gas imports by 2025. Oil won’t be the only thing on people’s minds in the future.
Then again, its very hard to take seriously the EIA as a forecasting body when all their assumptions take into account oil at prices between 25 and 30$. Really.
Meanwhile, crude has backed off from yesterday’s surge forward on the news of Saudi King Fahd’s death but remains within yesterday’s range. Out of Iran this morning there is a report4 of a bomb explosion outside of British Petroleum and British Airways offices.
US Market Calendar
- 7:45 am: ICSC-UBS Store Sales
- 8:30 am: Personal Income & Consumption – Jun.
- 8:55 am: Redbook – Jul. 30th week
- 10:00 am: Factory Orders – Jun.
Canadian Market Calendar
- No scheduled releases
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Chain store sales rise in the latest week
2 Personal Income and Outlays (PDF)
4 Small bomb explodes outside BA, BP offices in Iran
Featured setups from Monday August 1, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- Back from a 1/2 day off; will be back to normal schedule as of today’s close.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
HD – home improvement – tests bottom end of range; hold overnight only on a strong close, ideally one that pushes toward the upper end of the range.
WSM – home stuffs
ECA – energy, nat gas
APA – energy. In both APA and ECA cases price needs to clear the two day high before we can be comfy holding.
PMCS – tech, already reported. Appears to be holding support from the prior breakout – one shot here at resumption of trend.
TWX – following the bottoming patterns we noted last month, here’s the next pause.
HYSL – solid trend, one to play if the market firms today – harami.
Test of Top – Continuation
KLAC – one of the stronger semi-related names. Aggressive traders could also stalk a short below the harami – it is a test of top after all.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
ABT – pharma – bounce is getting aged, if triggered at Monday’s low demand price break the two day low and close well in your favour before considering holding.
AET – insurance – other player in industry Marsh reported weak numbers
Test of Bottom – Continuation
NTAP
C
Today's transcript.
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Tuesday August 2 closing data
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Statistics for Tuesday August 2, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 440 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 299 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.47 : 1 |
| Advancers | 68% |
| Decliners | 30% |
| Unchanged | 3% |
| Up Bars | 51% |
| Down Bars | 22% |
| Inside Bars | 15% |
| Outside Bars | 7% |
| Close > 20EMA | 68% |
| Close > 50SMA | 75% |
| Close > 200SMA | 68% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 50% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 16% |