Thursday, August 4, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:40 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 08:52 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday August 4 |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 20:29 | Swing Scanner Results Thursday August 4 closing data |
| 20:30 | Market Statistics For Thursday August 4, 2005 |
Good morning, today is Thursday August 4th, the 216th day of 2005.
As expected, the Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent; it had been held steady for eleven months prior. Also announced this morning, the European Central Bank left its key rate unchanged at 2 percent, where it has remained for twenty-six months now. The US dollar is more or less unchanged following the news, which tells us no one was surprised with either development.
US Market Calendar
- 7:00 am: BOE Announcement
- 7:45 am: ECB Announcement
- 8:30 am: Initial Jobless Claims – Jul. 30th week
- 10:30 am: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
- 11:00 am: Chain-Store Sales – July
- 2:00 pm: Natural Gas Weekly Update
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:15 am: Foreign Reserves – July
- 10-year bond auction announcement
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Wednesday August 3, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- After a bad bout of computer problems yesterday its not clear whether I’m fully back on line today – I’ll be trading a narrower set of markets today until the coast is clear, Murphy-willing.
- The market continues to act every morning that it wants to take a breather, and every afternoon it rallies… while individual names have been working, as a whole the ship isn’t rising much now.
- Patience and caution continue to be the best attributes a trader can have in this market – continue to jack up stops on existing positions in case a turn around is near, as indications suggest.
- Don’t forget to ensure you know what the status of quarterly reporting is for anything you hold. Personally I never hold through earnings unless its a long term position with significant profit baked into the position.
- Don’t forget to follow up on yesterday’s untriggered or still-valid trade setups
ETFS
PPH – pharma ETF follow up from yesterday see also WYE, PFE; weak MRK chart suggests an abundance of caution would be good to employ.
SMH – semi ETF broke out of range earlier this week and paused immediately. Aggressive traders will look to short on break of inside day lows – a Three Inside Down setup – less aggressive folks will stalk a long > the inside bar and short at the two day low.
$INDU / DIA – Dow 30 ETF ought to be bought with narrow stops if price breaks out higher and holds. I’ll be taking out longs here but only after the first retracement; if the market later in the day powers straight up and out of the range I may “caboose” an entry, or wait for Friday. I’ve been stalking shorts in Dow 30 futures over the past few days and will continue to do so until the range breaks to the upside. On YM futures 10680 has provided significant resistance over the past several days – if price remains below these levels, I will be selling intraday retracements short.
IWM – Russell 2000 ETF
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Bottom – Reversal
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
WAG – retail, caution. Disappointments in this sector starting to rise; however drug stores may be exempt from this. Breaks out and pauses – hold only if closes relatively strongly and pushes higher than the two day high, ideally to new swing highs.
VAR – medical – second pause after the breakout and the potential for a trend to develop. Ideally price will break 2 day high here.
WYE – pharma – has been one of the stronger pharma stocks and is weakening here – caution, may be trading along with broad market here which has been stuck in a similar range now for 12 – 14 days.
PFE – pharma – a strong case could be made to stalk PFE, MRK short here under this rise, so caution required here. Some potential PFE bottomed out in mid-July.
EXTR – tech, networking – first pause after breakout
XMSR – needs to hold support here near 35. Very likely may rise a little and fall even more before the next decent setup shows up but this is a spot where a rally can emerge from therefore must be stalked if interested in the sat radio sector.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
MRK – pharma
SYMC – software – bouncing to resistance, follow up 1 – 2 more days max.
Test of Bottom – Continuation
BBI – video/entertainment – follow any minor bounce up for 1 – 2 more days if untriggered today.
Today's transcript.
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Thursday August 4 closing data
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Statistics for Thursday August 4, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 278 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 460 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.60 : 1 |
| Advancers | 19% |
| Decliners | 79% |
| Unchanged | 1% |
| Up Bars | 18% |
| Down Bars | 60% |
| Inside Bars | 13% |
| Outside Bars | 6% |
| Close > 20EMA | 19% |
| Close > 50SMA | 69% |
| Close > 200SMA | 65% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 51% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 16% |