Tuesday, August 9, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:17 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:24 | Swing Trade Setups |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 21:55 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday August 9 closing data |
| 21:59 | Market Statistics For Tuesday August 9, 2005 |
Good morning, today is August 9th, the 221st day of 2005.
Markets are up pre-market for essentially no discernable reason other than traders are taking positions before the FOMC meeting. This is so often foolishness – having through many FOMC meeting events over the years, the one constant I’ve observed is that the outcome at the end of the day, or even the following day, is very rarely in the same direction as the initial direction price takes as the FOMC announcement text is released. Aside from the first hour or so this morning, I won’t be trading until the dust settles after the announcement.
The other, more valid, reason for taking positions now is some traders are betting that the sell off of late may be done—and theat is an entirely valid premise, although less aggressive traders and investors will be happy enough with their returns by allowing price to prove it during the regular session.
Labour costs showed a 4.3% gain, the highest year over year gain in five years, and productivity gains decellerated in June, rising at a 2.2 percent rate. The cheery employment news is a concern for the fed:
``Companies can’t cover all the growth in output with productivity gains,’’ said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, before the report. ``Lower productivity translates into higher wages and inflation, and if that were to persist it would worry the Fed.’’
Pre-FOMC trade is often listless at the best of times; during low-volume summer trade it can be very quirky. Use caution!
Crude is off marginally before the open after trading about $64 overnight. Less hawkish language from the Fed and dropping oil would be a dream scenario for the stock market today, but its likely one of the two legs of that premise are unlikely to be available to us today.
US Market Calendar
- 7:45 am: ICSC-UBS Store Sales
- 8:30 am: Productivity and Costs – Q2 preliminary
- 8:55 am: Redbook retail sales – Aug. 6th week
- 9:00 am: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate policy meeting
- 10:00 am: Wholesale Trade – June
- 2:15 pm: FOMC Announcement
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:15 am: Housing Starts – July
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 U.S. 2nd-Qtr Productivity Rises at 2.2% Rate
As I’m running late here today after having to rebuild my data for the second time in a week, I’ll be publishing Swing Trade Setups today within TrendVue Trader Talk this morning.
We’ll likely have lots of time to think about trades – aside from the first hour or so, there’s usually little to do until after the FOMC meeting announcement at 2:15.
Today's transcript.
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Tuesday August 9 closing data
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Statistics for Tuesday August 9, 2005
Our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded or liquid US stocks is used as the base for analysis.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 267 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 418 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.63 : 1 |
| Advancers | 63% |
| Decliners | 35% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 34% |
| Down Bars | 33% |
| Inside Bars | 23% |
| Outside Bars | 6% |
| Close > 20EMA | 63% |
| Close > 50SMA | 61% |
| Close > 200SMA | 67% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 42% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 20% |