Thursday, September 15, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 03:02 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday September 14 closing data |
| 03:07 | Market Statistics For Wednesday September 14, 2005 |
| 03:21 | Quick Take: Currencies US Dollar on the move... |
| 03:40 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:21 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday September 15 |
| 10:29 | Quick Take: USD and Gold Scenario playing out so far... |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Wednesday September 14 closing data
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Statistics for Wednesday September 14, 2005
Our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded or liquid US stocks is used as the base for analysis.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 223 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 458 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.48 : 1 |
| Advancers | 31% |
| Decliners | 67% |
| Unchanged | 1% |
| Up Bars | 21% |
| Down Bars | 53% |
| Inside Bars | 13% |
| Outside Bars | 9% |
| Close > 20EMA | 31% |
| Close > 50SMA | 54% |
| Close > 200SMA | 63% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 43% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 20% |
The US Dollar is on the march overnight, breaking out its recent range and on track to push up and out of the retracement we’ve recently noted on the weekly charts. Important to also note: The Euro is on the move, down:
EURUSD off three quarters percent at time of writing, the more important factor to consider is whether the rising wedge of the last couple of months breaks lower and fully resolves to the 2005 lows. In the big picture a head and shoulders pattern exists, with the neckline living near the 2005 lows.
USD Index, intraday – as noted in our analyst on the web site and in TrendVue Trader Talk, a retracement on the weekly chart looked like a juicy target for an attempt at an upside breakout. Here we go…
Gold will suffer if the breakout holds, but if the USD again weakens and pulls back into the range below, particularly if price quickly falls below the 87.50 level, we’ll certainly want to be long again in gold. In the meantime, protect open profits and be ready to act just in case the “break and fake” scenario in the USD plays out.
Good morning, today is Thursday September 15th, the 258th day of 2005.
Overnight crude oil futures are up near half a percent, with the rest of the energy sector tagging along in similar proportions. Today’s key economic reports include the Consumer Price Index, and what’s now likely to become a regular fixation for the market while Gulf of Mexico production remains shut-in at high levels, the Natural Gas injections report at 10:30 am.
Speaking of energy, we’re barely done with the summer of 2005 and already folks are forecasting 2007 prices (Commodity Strategists: Oil May Average $93 in 2007).
Newell Rubbermaid announced this morning a layoff of 5,000 employees; these cuts to labour are starting to add up, and that’s without factoring what some economists (Goldman Sachs) believe may be a hit of 700,000 jobs directly and indirectly related to the Katrina catastrophe.
I can’t recall a time since the attack of 9/11 when the market has faced such uncertainty, although listening to the pundits, you’d be hard pressed to find much cause for concern. You can bet the Federal Reserve will be carefully considering their options, and tone of language to be used, when they sit down next Tuesday to consider interest rate policy and announce what is still believed to be another quarter point hike in rates.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Consumer Price Index – August
- 8:30 am: Initial Claims – Sep. 10th week
- 8:30 am: Empire State Manufacturing Survey – September
- 8:30 am: Business Inventories – July
- 10:30 am: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
- 12:00 pm: Philadelphia Fed Index – September.
- 2:00 pm: Hurricane Katrina Production Shut-in Statistics – Daily
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Existing Home Sales – August
- 8:30 am: New Motor Vehicle Sales – July
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Wednesday September 14, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- A weak bounce today will not a reversal make; IF price can hold above the mid point of yesterday’s tall down bar, we might want to be a little more aggressive with the long side, but be prepared to exit new positions entered today if price weakens again tomorrow as it well may do.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
AV – communications – still a relatively positive chart in a sea of relatively weak charts.
YHOO may have set a bottom back in mid August; stalking today only above this downbar.
MCDTA – today only
CIEN – today only, should tech get some lift today. A little tricky and I will probably pass myself however I know a number of folks follow this one and the sector.
Test of Top – Continuation
CIT – capital financing – bull flag under test of top
MEDX, today only.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
ADBE fails to hold trendline break out last week – here’s a bounce to position underneath for continuation if sellers pile back in.
Test of Bottom – Continuation
CD – services provider
CBH – banking / finance, bounce to bottom of range = stalk 1 – 2 more days to sell…
Special Situations
Aluminum. Seems like the deck is stacked against it – energy costs going up, the charts are frankly just ugly beyond compare. But, a piercing line candle in AL may change that, so its worth paying attention for today. These setups don’t always pan out but often when they do, a significant bottom has been set. Therefore in the spirit of “nothing ventured nothing gained…”
AA and AL, aluminum, long, but ONLY if price clears yesterdays high and pushes up strongly into the close would I hold this. The charts are, frankly, ugly, and speak to potential slow down in the economy. However, traditionally, buying at these valuations has been a good thing… in the long run, but we are not about the long run. I never take home anything that I am seriously underwater in. Never.
AL – what caught my attention was the piercing line candle – a less commonly found reversal signal. Of the two, AL I would favour.
A quick update on USD and Gold:
US, Intraday – we can see where the first hint of weakness – a break down below the day’s lows (at this point) – which may only lead to a gap fill and then another rally, but also may set in motion the gap up and fail scenario on the daily charts which I’ve been outlining.
Gold is up, the Dollar is up – breaking out in fact – a conundrum. What’s going on?
In fact the strength in Gold may be in part due to other traders expecting this scenario to play out. Talk about the tail wagging the dog – the currency markets are bigger than any other individual market, including gold.
Gold, Daily – retesting contract highs here… very important to monitor the commodity over the next few days for a pass/fail.
Today's transcript.
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