TrendVue :: Archive

Monday, September 19, 2005
Issue Contents:

09:08	The Day Ahead Economic releases and news
09:30	Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday September 19
16:15	TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript.

The Day Ahead

Good morning, today is September 19th, the 262nd day of 2005 and the start of a new week of concerns over US oil and gas infrastructure in the path of an upcoming tropical storm or hurricane.

Before the open, stock index futures are off marginally, however energy futures are up sharply (CL up 1.73%, NG up 6.87% nearing the all time contract high, gasoline and heating oil each up 3+%) thanks to Tropical Storm Rita which is forecast to become a significant hurricane while travelling through the Gulf of Mexico. Initial projections are for landfall in Texas, but while this far out, the computer forecasting models used do tend to shift significantly and a northward bend has been creeping into the models. We might imagine energy prices, especially natural gas and refined fuels if not crude itself, will remain well supported while a large degree of uncertainty remains.

Gold is up again, but so also is the US Dollar. One of these days one or the other will break down. Manage profit in open positions – never assume that the good run will continue forever!

Reminder: Tomorrow the Federeal Open Market Committee meets again to determine its interest rate policy. This meeting shall be one of the most closely watched in a number of years, as investors look closely at the accompanying announcement for any signs that the Fed is nearing the end of its interest rate increase run. Ahead of an FOMC meeting I tend to reduce activity – instead of picking up new positions, for the most part I spend the time preparing my portfolio by trimming marginal positions, taking profits where it makes sense and adjusting stops as required.

US Market Calendar

1:00 pm: NAHB Housing Index – September
3 & 6-month T-bill auction

Canadian Market Calendar

8:30 am: International Securities Transactions – July

Earnings and the Federal Reserve

For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.

For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.

^ 05.09.19 09:08 #

Swing Trade Setups

Featured setups from Friday September 16, 2005 closing data symbol scan using http://www.trendvue.com/latestscan

Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups

Notes for the Day

FOMC tomorrow. It can’t be gamed. We can’t guess what the language will look like nor how everyone will react, so I don’t try. Trimming back activity and ensuring I’ve got profit taking stops in appropriate locations, although I will hold any positions filled today that close strongly.

ETFS

IF you are long the broader market (from weeks ago) and wish to stay that way, at least move up protective stops. Short setup here is to sell under a single up bar in still intact downswing.

Long Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.

Test of Bottom – Reversal

Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend

MRO – energy producer / refiner – inside bar in strong trend, hold only if strong close.

SU – energy, oil sands – inside bar in developing trend

FCEL – alternative energy

ORCL – software

GNSS – semi sector, but a gap probably to fill therefore only hold if surprising strength comes in today.

Test of Top – Continuation

CIT – commercial finance

BHI – oil service sector

Short Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.