Thursday, September 22, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:00 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:39 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday September 22 |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Good morning, today is Thursday September 27th, the 265th day of 2005 – only 100 days left before 2006.
The impact from hurricane Katrina continues to be felt, even as powerful hurricane Rita adjusts course straight for Galveston and Houston. Initial jobless claims rose by 432,000 last week – a massive increase – yet only 103,000 of these claims are directly related to the storm. Initial claims are now tracking at the highest levels since the summer of 2003, and the rate of increase this week has not been seen in 13 years.1
In Canada, consumer prices rose 2.6 percent in August, representing the largest year over year gain in over two years, largely thanks to energy costs.2
``It certainly looks like’’ the Bank of Canada ``will raise rates in October,’’ said Doug Porter, an economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. ``Inflation is unfolding fairly close to what they expected.’’
Indeed, the Canadian dollar has been on a tear (down is increased strength against the USD):
Market statistics show that most of the market is in a down-swing on the daily chart, and that only 35% of the market is in anything we could easily call an up-trend. These are the signs of a market top, one which we’ve been discussing for some time now. If indeed the top holds as such, bounces will be used to lighten positions… trading on the long side becomes much more difficult.
Statistics for Wednesday September 21, 2005
| Symbols in Up Swings | 152 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 527 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.28 : 1 |
| Up Bars | 12% |
| Down Bars | 76% |
| Inside Bars | 7% |
| Outside Bars | 4% |
| Close > 20EMA | 25% |
| Close > 50SMA | 41% |
| Close > 200SMA | 54% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 35% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 24% |
We can imagine some post-Rita relief if damage is not as bad as Katrina-induced fears suggest, but market participants won’t have a clue in that regard until Monday at the earliest.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Initial Claims – Sep. 17th week
- 10:00 am: Leading Indicators – August
Canadian Market Calendar
- 7:00 am: Consumer Price Index – August
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Initial claims increase by 8,000 to 432,000
2 Canada’s Consumer Prices Rise at Fastest in Two Years
Featured setups from Wednesday September 21, 2005 closing data symbol scan http://www.trendvue.com/latestscan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- Keep managing open shorts – I didn’t see a heck of a lot out there that isn’t already moving down, which leave shorting stocks that have been strong (one listed) – that’s a high risk endeavor, aggressive traders with quick trigger fingers only.
- A few longs, few of which are likely to work in this environment however we should be following up on these ideas for the next few days. Rita will pass, eventually.
- Energy continues to be strong. There are few setups on the daily charts, but my strategy of trading positions intraday – buying significant dips (these happen all the time in energy sector) and holding if the stock closes storng – continues to work. I’ve a sense it will stop working soon, but until then… I shall carry on.
- Caution, caution, and cash are good things for those who only trade the long side.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Bottom – Reversal
ETN – test of local swing low and gap fill.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
SWY – seems to have stalled here – monitoring but may not take this trade. The first trade we noted back in August was the real winner.
PG
CNXT
CC – reported strong results but the sector is under big pressure
Test of Top – Continuation
RDC – energy services co
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
NVDA – has been very strong but a local, tiny, test of top gives an opportunity. CAUTION
Special Situations
NT
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.