TrendVue :: Archive

Monday, September 26, 2005
Issue Contents:

09:19	The Day Ahead Economic releases and news
09:25	Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday September 26
16:15	TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript.

The Day Ahead

Good morning, today is Monday September 26th, the 269th day of 2005. Before the open, markets acted as if all is well and good – will this be the conclusion at the end of the day? Tune in at 4pm to see.

I’m struck by how frequently the press and pundits are saying that the energy sector dodged a bullet, at this early stage of the process of recovery from Rita and the on-going, slow, recovery from Katrina. While its true that the Houston area refinery complex did not receive a hard blow from hurricane Rita, the reality is that at no time in recent memory, if not in history, has more of the nation’s refinery capacity been off-line at the same time.

As well, virtually all of the oil production from the Gulf of Mexico remains shut in, as well as most of the Natural Gas production. From Sundays Minerals Management Service Gulf of Mexico Production Shut-in Report

Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,501,863 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today’s shut-in gas production is 8.047 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 80.47% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05–9/25/05 is 33,283,422 bbls, which is equivalent to 6.079 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05–9/25/05 is 156.037 BCF, which is equivalent to 4.275% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).

If interested in the energy sector and the known impact, post-Rita, this document (PDF) from the US Department of Electricity and Energy Reliability detailing outages across the spectrum of energy supply is recommended reading. Check their site daily for updates.

US Market Calendar

10:00 am: Existing Home Sales – August
9:15 am: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Michael Moskow speaks at the National Association for Business Economics conference
2:00 pm: MMS Status Report Update
8:45 pm: Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig to speak about the U.S. economy, in Clinton, Oklahoma

Canadian Market Calendar

No scheduled releases

Earnings and the Federal Reserve

For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.

For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.

^ 05.09.26 09:19 #

Swing Trade Setups

Featured setups from Friday September 23, 2005 closing data symbol scan at http://www.trendvue.com/latestscan

Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations

Notes for the Day

Optimism is running very high that energy woes are somehow a thing of the past; unfortunately this sort of knee-jerk reaction often doesn’t last, but while it does we should not stand in the way of it and indeed need to exploit it, just in case.
Short setups from the today and Friday need to be followed up 1 – 2 more days if not triggered today.
I shall not hold new long trades if their gains are marginal… there is high risk of a one day relief rally failing
Energy longs – the sector has moved up extremely quickly and we have been looking for the day when its big push up would end. Are we looking at an end, or a pause? At this point we can not yet tell, so buyable retracements remain on my shopping list. Follow up 1 – 2 more days if untriggered today.

ETFS

QQQQ – I’m also interesed in this long but only if I can find a decent setup intraday near the 2 day high.

SPY – stalk short next 1 – 2 days.

SMH – hold only on a strong close; inverted hammer reversal signal but make it prove itself…

DIA

Long Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.

Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend

TKLC – in an upswing and up trend

ATI – must clear this price

GFI – gold – likely to pull back another day or two

KGC – gold, ditto. Will look at USD later this morning

ABX – gold

BGO – gold

SLB – energy services, this sub sector is probably going to recover first before energy as a whole – that’s the theory anyway, follow up next 1 – 3 days.

RIG – ditto

XTO – energy producers, try to find those with NG weighting

ECA – one to watch next 1 – 3 days, note the high ADX, it was ripe for a pull back as we’ve been noting now for the last few days.

CHK – ditto

Test of Top – Continuation

Short Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.