Tuesday, September 6, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:46 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 08:51 | Schedule This Week Subscribers please note |
| 09:16 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday September 6 |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Good morning, today is Tuesday September 6th, the 249th day of 2005, and a week and one day after Hurricane Katrina hit landfall.
Over the past several days, International Energy Administration (IEA) members have been living up to their treaty obligations by freeing up crude oil reserves for use by the United States.1 In addition to crude reserves, some member countries are shipping finished products (gasoline).2 60M barrels are being freed up - to put that in perspective, Katrina has in one week already tkaen off-line 12 million barrels as of Monday.
Crude itself has pulled back to the rising trendline; the next most significant area of support resides near 62. We might expect price to hold firmer than this unless significant progress is made in bringing most of the remaining GOM crude production on-line.
The Minerals Management Service, the department responsible for managing Gulf of Mexico oil resources among other things, released an update yesterday on evacuation and shut-in status for gulf producers - some progress made:
Today's shut-in oil production is 1,043,681 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 69.57% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD. This represents a 5 percent improvement from yesterday's figures.
Today's shut-in gas production is 5.225 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 54.13% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD. This represents a 2 percent improvement from Sunday's figures.3
Comparing Monday's report with the prior version: as of Saturday production shut-ins totaled 78.98% oil / 57.80% gas, as of Monday now at 69.57% / 54.13% with more rigs manned.
Keeping in mind that natural gas is for all intents and purposes a wholly North American market, it should not surprise us that NG prices have remained relatively steady even as crude has pulled back sharply off of last week's spikes.
Based on experience from last year's hurricane Ivan, there are probably another day or two of 'easy' gains in bringing production capacity on-line and then we'll probably see these MMS numbers start to hold static for a while.
Depending on the duration of this static period, and the length of time significant US refinery capacity remains off-line, consumer spending into the winter may be hit significantly.
US Markets
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10:00 am: Non-mfg ISM Index - Aug.
Canadian Markets
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8:15 am: Foreign Reserves - Aug.
- Oil Falls as U.S. Rigs, Refineries Start, IEA Pledges Supplies ↩
- Bodman: more oil coming to market:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Friday that an international oil agency will make 60 million barrels of oil and gasoline available to the marketplace. Speaking from Washington, Bodman announced that the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release crude oil, gasoline and other refined products over the next month at the rate of 2 million barrels a day. ↩
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation and Production Shut-in Statistics Report - Monday Sept 5 ↩
8:37 AM EDT Tuesday September 06 #
Good morning – this week we shall begin flipping over to our new web application; in the coming weeks a number of new features are also to be brought on-line, including a new html-only web chat for Trendvue Trader Talk.
Late today the first-phase of this application roll out will show up at http://www.trendvuecapital.com/ (impatient folks can check now but will simply be redirected back to the existing Trendvue site) – for a period of time the new site will be run in parallel at Trendvuecapital.com, and once the initial kinks are worked out, the old site will be shut down.
Mike will be available in Trendvue Trader Talk during the first 90 minutes of the trading session each day this week and next; following that he’ll be available on a sporadic basis during the day while working on project work. He’ll be available in Trendvue Trader Talk during key economic news releases as well.
In addition to the techy-stuff we are doing here, one of the long-outstanding projects to be knocked off in September is a revamping of the Knowledge Base as well as the release of more of our swing-trading software tools including updates to Trendvue Swing and, ultimately, release of all our tools on the Neoticker platform as well.
Construction in progress… please pardon the mess!
Featured setups from Friday September 2, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- Inside day last week; IEA crude release gives market some life. Will it last? No one can know. Professionals will use the bounce (1, 2 days perhaps?) to reduce exposure in sectors they expect to be weaker in the intermediate term (1 – 3 months) and try to add in sectors they expect to be stronger.
- ABS / SWY from last week moved wildly – reports out tomorrow and ABS considers sale
ETFS
DIA – despite the pre-market futures being up (which may hold yet for all we know) lets not forget that price is rising in a wedge to overhead resistance. This tells us to be cautious on any new longs done, and not to expect price to hold into the range above. If price does surge and hold, consider that a bonus! Meanwhile… a break of Friday’s lows will almost certainly bring prices back to last week’s lows.
XLE – energy ETF with last two entry locations. Now at a test of top, for 1 – 2 more days keep monitoring any minor pull back for a trigger above the high of the day before for a continuation trade.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
GILD – biotech
VLO – refiners
ECA – natural gas
Test of Top – Continuation
Energy Sector – numerous tests of tops to play out over the next few days
APC – producer
CNQ – oil sands, also SU
COP – refiners and more
DO – services
BHI – services
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
CLS – EMS sector – a bit tricky bounce under a broken trendline perhaps a wedge. Stalk one day only here, price must break the two day low before I would consider keeping.
JBL – EMS sector – trigger at two day low
Test of Bottom – Continuation
SLE – Sara Lee not cooking with fire lately.
SMTC – weaker semi
DOW – chemicals
Today's transcript.
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