Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 11, 2005
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.1 million barrels per day during the week ending March 11, up 180,000 barrels per day from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.7 percent of their operable capacity last week. However, gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production declined slightly compared to the previous week, averaging 3.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 10.0 million barrels per day last week, down 58,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 10.0 million barrels per day, which is 413,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the comparable four weeks last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 964,000 barrels per day last week, while distillate fuel imports averaged 307,000 barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 305.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 2.9 million barrels last week, but remain above the average range. Distillate fuel inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. A sharp decline in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil), more than compensated for a slight increase in low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel). Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by 5.1 million barrels last week, but remain in the upper half of the average range.
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.7 million barrels per day, or 1.5 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.0 million barrels per day, or 2.0 percent above the same period last year, while distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.2 million barrels per day, or 0.6 percent above the same period last year. Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 6.8 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Take away? Demand, every week it seems, is rising, at substantial rates above last year. Interestingly, inventories are up and the issue appears to be more of refined product shortages rather than raw crude supply itself.
Traders seem willing to bid up crude on the expectation that demand will eventually pressure supply of raw materials further, and possibly on the expectation that a raw crude supply disruption of any sort – a strike in Nigeria or Norway, a pipeline problem here or there (and just wait for hurricane season!) – will squeeze price hard.
Crude
Crude current contract made an all time high today; the back-adjusted continuous contract shows the context of price against expired contracts – these are historic levels. Note on the weekly chart ADX is starting to tick upwards too. Through all of 2004 and 2005 I’ve been unwilling to call the end of Crude’s rise despite the noise from most analysts, and I am still unwilling to do so. However, at a test of top like this we have to at least be open to the potential, however unlikely it seems at the time.
Industry Stocks
There are a great many potential failed bear flag trigger setups in the making today – and some indication on the charts of a number of industry names that support may be building at recent lows. Most of these are swing trade setups for tomorrow and our first priority tomorrow will be to identify the entry but also be wary of a minor wiggle up which triggers longs followed by weakness and failure.
With these stocks all having run so much we have to ask the question – “who is left to buy”?
XLE – energy ETF – building a base here.
VLO – refiner – building a base.
XOM – integrated international – building a base. Tomorrow’s setup: buy stop trigger above today’s “down bar”.
TLM – large Canadian and international upstream exploration and producer. Building a base, possible trigger for tomorrow.
Its important to note that some of these names (ECA for example) may put in outside bars today – we’ll want to monitor the sector closely and attempt to find safer intraday entry locations on dips, and move to break even stops at the earliest opportunity. For the most part I am waiting until tomorrow – we’ll see how these names fare once the news wears off.
05.03.16 11:32 #