[Multiple Timeframes] Treasury Futures
It's been a while since we last looked at Treasury Bond and Note futures, so let's take a good look, starting with the daily chart.
MARCH 2004 TREASURY NOTE FUTURES: We've seen the upper and lower edge of the old triangle tested, but no breakout took place. We can adjust the edges of the triangle to make it larger.
MARCH 2004 TREASURY BOND FUTURES: Same here. The upper and lower edges that we originally drew were simply tested and the moves faked. On this last run up to test the upper edge, it failed and is now headed toward the lower edge as the congestion zone simply expands. Eventually, there will be a move, but we will have to wait until it comes.
MARCH 2004 TREASURY NOTE FUTURES, Monthly: The main point here is that ADX reached an extreme reading for this symbol and timeframe. The pink arrow is what we have to watch out for, since almost every single broken parabolic move has this signature pattern -- a lower high after a spike top -- that makes you think that it's a pennant that will resolve higher. Instead, it is a reversal made on a lower high where once the lower edge -- the "neckline" -- breaks, the next big leg down is when all the fundamentals materialize and the man on the street will know why owning bonds makes no sense in the foreseeable future. That's when the reversal becomes a trend, and the move down becomes a stampede down a one-way street.
MARCH 2004 TREASURY BOND FUTURES, Monthly: Same comments as for the Treasury Notes, except the long end was weaker at the top, as expected, because speculation moved to the 10-year.
MARCH 2004 TREASURY NOTE FUTURES, Weekly: If we drill down to the weekly chart, this is the neckline that we've had on this chart for ages. The scenario is still alive.
MARCH 2004 TREASURY BOND FUTURES, Weekly: Same comments as the Notes.
03.12.01 13:03 #