If you are an Active Trader subscriber and have followed the links in the chain of posts on Treasuries over the past few months, you know that our main concern at this juncture is that bonds are at the Sell of a Generation. Let's take a look at charts of other mania tops.
TOKYO TOPIX INDEX, Monthly: Just a quick walk down memory lane, to make sure that we all know what a Sell of a Generation looks like.
NASDAQ 100 INDEX, Monthly: Another day, another Sell of a Generation.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to read headlines of reports like the annual flow summary by AMG Data, posted January 15, 2003:
2002 Inflows Highest on Record to Bond Funds-Lowest to Stock FundsIn 2002 Taxable Bond funds reported the largest inflows on record ($133.5 Billion) with just under half (48%) going to funds investing in Corporate Bonds. Investment Grade Corporate Bond funds reported inflows of $43.0 Billion, the largest of any sector.
Equity Funds reported net cash inflows of $11.7 billion, the smallest since AMG began reporting investor fund flows (1992). The sector reported net cash inflows of $81.4 billion from January through May and net cash outflows of $69.7 billion from June through December. The largest inflows were reported by:
- Small Cap Growth funds ($18.8 billion);
- International Equity funds ($10.4 billion);
- Equity Income funds ($6.2 billion).
- The largest outflows were reported by:
- Large Cap Growth/Value funds ($12.3 billion; 1.4% assets);Technology funds ($6.7 billion; 20.4% assets).Municipal Bond Funds report record inflows ($20.2 billion).
- Money Market fund assets stand at $2.3 Trillion.
One interesting source of infomation is the Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Connection, which makes the numbers public, free of charge. Let's walk down memory lane...
October 1998
|
Oct 98 |
Sept 98 |
% chg |
Oct 97 | |
|
Stock Funds |
2,651.5 |
2,482.8R |
6.8 |
2,276.0 |
|
Hybrid Funds |
343.8 |
332.3R |
3.5 |
306.5 |
|
Taxable Bond Funds |
514.6 |
515.5R |
-0.2 |
436.6 |
|
Municipal Bond Funds |
294.9 |
295.2R |
-0.1 |
265.2 |
|
Taxable Money Market Funds |
1,131.0 |
1,086.1R |
4.1 |
883.6 |
|
Tax-Free Money Market Funds |
186.5 |
180.8R |
3.1 |
155.1 |
|
Total |
5,122.3 |
4,892.7R |
4.7 |
4,322.9 |
February 2000
|
Feb 00 |
Jan 00 |
% chg |
Dec 99 | |
|
Stock Funds |
4,221.1 |
3,951.9R |
6.8 |
4,041.9 |
|
Hybrid Funds |
360.7 |
368.7R |
-2.2 |
383.2 |
|
Taxable Bond Funds |
530.0 |
527.7R |
0.6 |
536.5 |
|
Municipal Bond Funds |
266.7 |
266.2R |
0.2 |
271.6 |
|
Taxable Money Market Funds |
1,466.7 |
1,446.6R |
1.4 |
1,408.7 |
|
Tax-Free Money Market Funds |
214.4 |
212.5R |
0.9 |
204.4 |
|
Total |
7,059.7 |
6,773.5R |
4.2 |
6,846.3 |
November 2002
|
Nov 02 |
Oct 02 |
% chg |
Dec 01 | |
|
Stock Funds |
2,818.6 |
2,659.5R |
+6.0 |
3,418.2 |
|
Hybrid Funds |
332.0 |
316.7R |
+4.8 |
346.3 |
|
Taxable Bond Funds |
775.7 |
760.3R |
+2.0 |
630.1 |
|
Municipal Bond Funds |
322.2 |
323.3R |
-0.3 |
295.0 |
|
Taxable Money Market Funds |
2,028.4 |
1,908.4R |
+6.3 |
2,012.9 |
|
Tax-Free Money Market Funds |
278.2 |
269.1R |
+3.4 |
272.4 |
|
Total |
6,555.1 |
6,237.2R |
+5.1 |
6,975.0 |
June 2003
|
June 03 |
May 03 |
% chg |
Dec 02 | |
|
Stock Funds |
3,031.5 |
2,958.5R |
+2.5 |
2,667.1 |
|
Hybrid Funds |
373.3 |
365.8R |
+2.1 |
327.4 |
|
Taxable Bond Funds |
908.8 |
897.4R |
+1.3 |
796.6 |
|
Municipal Bond Funds |
339.7 |
341.3R |
-0.5 |
328.5 |
|
Taxable Money Market Funds |
1,873.6 |
1,854.7R |
+1.0 |
1,997.2 |
|
Tax-Free Money Market Funds |
291.1 |
285.9 |
+1.8 |
274.8 |
|
Total |
6,818.0 |
6,703.6R |
1.7 |
6,391.6 |
October 2003
|
Oct 03 |
Sept 03 |
% chg |
Dec 02 | |
|
Stock Funds |
3,441.3 |
3,228.5R |
+6.6 |
2,667.1 |
|
Hybrid Funds |
403.6 |
388.2R |
+4.0 |
327.4 |
|
Taxable Bond Funds |
895.7 |
897.0R |
-0.1 |
796.6 |
|
Municipal Bond Funds |
331.6 |
334.3R |
-0.8 |
328.5 |
|
Taxable Money Market Funds |
1,790.1 |
1,812.1R |
-1.2 |
1,997.2 |
|
Tax-Free Money Market Funds |
288.6 |
287.9R |
+0.2 |
274.8 |
|
Total |
7,150.9 |
6,948.0R |
+2.9 |
6,391.6 |
DOLLAR INDEX, LONDON AFTERNOON GOLD FIX, 30-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD, Weekly: While eyes are all on the Dollar and Gold, because it's so exciting, people are not watching the big pennant on the $TYX. We've already seen the fake "deflation" breakdown", and now, a pennant, which is a setup for a surprise move to the upside. Upside in the Treasury Bond yield would mean a move down in the Bonds themselves, and higher interest rates.
03.12.01 14:25 #