Ever wonder why other advisory services get all excited as the market approaches tops (buy, buy, buy!) and bottoms (sell, sell, sell!) while TrendVue seems relatively quiet, even silent?
At the moment, we are simply enjoying trades put on when it was the right (but scary) time to buy. At the moment, instead of getting carried away by the emotions of the crowd as price action intensifies, we are looking to take profits as our trades reach well beyond targets amidst excitement, because we did the right thing at the right time.
This week has been a great example of tending to a good entry on the buy side. Back on March 21, we noted that conditions were ripe for a short-term bounce off the daily charts after the big push down that began in early March, a downswing that came on the heels of the big congestion pattern breakout to the downside.
Going into the March 24 trading day, we set up the scenario for the upside as a test of bottom swing trade:
(Teresa) - In case it actually tries to go up, this is the set up. It's a test of the 20-day low, the so-called StreetSmarts Turtle Soup buy setup on the daily $INDU and $SPX charts. The way they do it is to buy if price heads back up through the March 15 swing low on the DIA, while the SPY has to go back up through the March 16 swing low. Their initial stop loss will be placed just under Monday's low. This is a swing trade.
The following is an exerpt from the March 24 transcript from the Active Traders, our real-time coaching service where we demonstrated how to enter the same trade on an intraday basis:
| 10:42:29 | Teresa: Yesterday's low is broken on the 5M ES and it now triggers some selling on the swing trade...watching for trap. | |
| 10:53:33 | Teresa: And in case this is a big trap, since it's a test of the day's low, yesterday's low plus the swing entry, we will bracket this with a buy stop at ES 109100 | |
| 11:06:01 | Teresa: We have a very unusual candlestick on the 45M ES chart...a reverse hammer  |
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| 11:06:16 | Teresa: ES 10900 IS THE REVERSAL POINT IF ANYONE IS PLAYING FOR THE REVERSAL... | |
| 11:10:20 | Mike: TICK and TRIN at their extremes of the day - if a reversal is going to come it will be really soon otherwise the crowd will just keep on pressing sell. | |
| 11:10:27 | Mike: Just like in that moving Trading Places LOL | |
| 11:10:32 | Mike: Sell OJ SELL! | |
| 11:22:09 | Mike: Hey if they want to bounce this baby for a while.. like multiple days, today would be a good day to do it. With all of December and Jan gains in tech retraced no doubt there are people out there that believe enough is enough. | |
| 11:37:35 | Mike: Well I bought some SP500 ETFs in my retirement account 10 minutes ago. Any other Canadians in the room today? | |
| 11:44:49 | Teresa: Now...the position/swing traders who are looking for this downside move will have their stop loss placed either just above the morning high, or just above yesterday's high. | |
| 11:52:43 | Mike: Looking at ES45 minute you can imagine how much they could ramp this if they start triggering some short covering.. | |
| 11:54:15 | Mike: Here's a thought. If they can push it up, tomorrow might be a gap up day which will set an Island Reversal on ES. Now that would be fun... | |
| 12:30:17 | Mike: Well maybe my gap up scenario / island reversal for tomorrow might play out after all ;) | |
| 12:30:55 | Mike: Sure enough, a few people outside the room here that I know personally are all freaked out by the decline and are doing nothing. | |
| 12:31:15 | Mike: So my confidence level rises when I hear universal fear or bearishness LOL | |
| 12:31:35 | Mike: I think we all have our "canaries in the coal mine" that we use for such purposes... | |
| 15:35:15 | Teresa: This is going to be a VERY big test... | |
| 15:35:50 | Teresa: The thing that struck me was the fact that in headlines and reaction thing... | |
| 15:35:50 | Mike: Teehee. | |
| 15:35:58 | Teresa: that they are all PRAYING that buyers will show up | |
| 15:39:22 | Teresa: The thing about the market is that I interpreted the headlines as prayers...for buyers to show up, and you know, the market never answers those for some reason. Never when I needed it. Haha. | |
| 15:41:54 | Mike: Maybe that last poke down will be the fuel needed to jam it up... | |
| 15:42:00 | Teresa: Yep... | |
| 15:42:09 | Teresa: since you never prayed, it will go up for you Mike. :o) | |
| 15:42:23 | Mike: Its pretty rare when I go to 50% invested all in one day. | |
| 15:42:42 | Mike: Thank goodness for ETFs. |
04.04.02 10:28 #