Note: You are reading this message because your web browser does not support current web standards. While you may still view and utilize our content, your experience on our site would be greatly enhanced if you were to upgrade to a more modern web browser.

< Back :: The Day Ahead

The Day Ahead

Good morning, on this the 338th day of 2004. Disappointing job creation numbers on both sides of the border are influencing pre-market trade, with US new jobs statistic coming in at almost one half of what was expected1, and this morning’s report included downward revisions to figures from the past two months.

Market Direction

So the question of the day – will the pause we noted in yesterday’s Market Direction note give rise to a reversal today, or not?


Dow Jones US Markets Index

A doji following a breakout is a perfect example of indecision.

Yesterday I noted on the NYSE that advancing/decliing issues and volumes made a little hook downward (I plot the volume figure inversely just to make it easy to fit on one panel – so rising red line = increasing declining volume). Earlier this week a large advancing volume spike was also noted – we see these at only two market juctures – 1) at the start of a new leg up and 2) very near the end of a major up swing. So there is another reason for caution, if the market does not power up today.

At this point pre-open futures are heading weaker and European bourses have moved down more than 1/2 % on the payroll news. Perhaps its up to this morning’s ISM report will turn the market back up; but for any existing positions, lets think defensively here.

Other Notes

I’m still battling a bad cold here and am running late. Swing trade featured charts this morning will be published directly in TrendVue Trader Talk – join us live of click on the provided link to catch the almost-live transcript (refresh once in a while manually).

US Market Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Employment Situation1
  • 10:00 am: ISM Services Non-Manufacturing Survey

Canadian Market Calendar

  • 7:00 am: Employment Report – November [2]
  • 8:15 am: Foreign Reserves – November

Earnings and the Federal Reserve

For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.

For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.

1 November Job Growth Unexpectedly Soft

2 Unemployment in Canada up in November

04.12.03 09:19 #